Pre-session brief for Monday 24 August, 09:00 Dakar (confirmed by METE). Built on Madeleine's response of 21 August and M. Sambou's worked calculation file: his claims verified, HEAT's biomass hypothesis withdrawn, and the reconciliation demonstrated from his own numbers.
Reply to HEAT's technical note, cc full working group. Two attachments: M. Sambou's calculation file ("Est IGES énergie 2024 scen ref.xls") and point-by-point responses ("Réponse à la Note de Heat.doc").
Underlying driver, in her words: "certaines de nos observations n'étaient pas totalement prises en charge et les sectorielles ne se retrouvaient pas sur le rapport consolidé". Every HEAT response should feed that need: concede what is true, demonstrate from their file, hand over the model with pride.
| Combustible | Imports (kt) | Soutes intl (kt) | Conso apparente (kt) | Émissions (Gg CO₂) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pétrole brut | 1 303 (+ prod. 2 344, − exp. 2 268) | · | 1 374,7 | 4 264,4 | refinery feed counted ON TOP of products; product rows carry no exports / no domestic production |
| Essence moteur | 210,7 | · | 207,7 | 637,6 | |
| Jet kérosène | 163,4 | 197,4 excluded ✓ | −34,5 | −106,4 | negative: bunkers exceed imports; domestic aviation ≈ +21 |
| Gasoil / Diesel | 777,3 | 204,0 excluded ✓ | 584,3 | 1 860,9 | |
| Fiouls résiduels (HFO) | 979,8 | · | 979,4 | 3 061,3 | |
| GPL | 225,1 | · | 226,6 | 675,9 | |
| Lubrifiants | 146,9 | · | 146,9 | 435,8 | non-energy use per IPCC (ODU ≈ 0,2), booked as fully combusted |
| Anthracite | 1 249,8 | · | 1 249,8 | 3 279,2 | ⚠ verify vs SIE coal supply — could mean HEAT's 1A2 undercounts cement coal |
| Gaz naturel + biomasse | · | · | · | 6,4 + 0 | no biomass lines anywhere: biomass excluded ✓ |
| TOTAL 2024 | 14 115,1 | sum verified |
Source: "Est IGES énergie 2024 scen ref.xls" (M. Sambou, 21/08/2026). HEAT's 21 Aug biomass hypothesis is withdrawn: the file confirms both exclusions were applied. The two highlighted lines (crude, lubricants) drive the reconciliation on the next slide.
From M. Sambou’s own file (received 21/08): bunkers and biomass were already excluded ✓. The crude line (1 374,7 kt apparent consumption, Sangomar 2 344 + imports 1 303 − exports 2 268) is counted on top of all refined products while product rows carry no exports and no domestic production. Lubricants (435,8 Gg) are non-energy use per IPCC. Open verification, done jointly Monday: the anthracite row (1 249,8 kt → 3 279 Gg) against the SIE coal supply — if confirmed, HEAT’s 1A2 may undercount cement coal and part of the gap is real; and the 2018 anchor vs the BUR energy chapter.
Carrying these caveats openly is deliberate: the reconciliation only convinces if HEAT is seen to test its own series with the same severity as his. If the coal row survives, series A moves up from evidence — exactly the process HEAT proposed.
| # | Their point | HEAT response | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | BAU concerns all sectors | Agree: cross-sector consistency table vs BUR anchors in the annex (national sum ≈ 24,0 already sits next to BUR 24,4) | AGREE |
| C2 | Why extrapolate 2024? | They are right; 2024 recomputed from the archived SIE 2024 in v126 | CONCEDE |
| C3 | Inventory only to verify CDN2 assumptions | A 2024 estimate is the judge of BOTH baselines; test both against it | REFRAME |
| C4·C5 | Biomass and bunkers were excluded | Confirmed in the file; HEAT's biomass hypothesis withdrawn explicitly | CONCEDE |
| C6 | 14 115 Gg → CDN3 BAU too low | Crude + lubricant lines corrected → ≈ 9 542, +0,4 % vs sectoral; coal row verified jointly | RESOLVE |
| C7 | Keep CDN2 BAU (policy-freeze logic) | Middle path: reality-anchored CDN3 BAU + quantified "effet des politiques CDN2" so post-2020 effort stays visible (CDN2 BAU 2025 = 21,0 Mt vs any 2024 estimate) | COUNTER |
| C8 | No letter to a consultancy (sovereignty) | Right on the form: METE documents its choice in its own ICTU annex (Dec. 4/CMA.1); nothing addressed to HEAT — framing corrected | REFRAME |
| C9 | Monday 9h confirmed; send the link | Invitation with video link sent today, full working-group list | ACTION |
| C10 | Model handover for national appropriation | Granted: external copy + README + handover note + offered walkthrough, after Monday | GRANT |
| C11 | Sectoral observations not visible in consolidated report | Comment-tracking annex: observation → treatment → report location, covering the 17 Aug compilation | ACKNOWLEDGE |
Full matrix with verbatim comments, assessments, and evidence: Assessment-Madeleine-2nd-request (DOCX + XLSX, project folder Madeleine-2nd-request/).
And the sovereignty point is settled by agreeing with it: the methodological decision belongs to METE and is documented in the ICTU annex of Senegal's own submission, as Decision 4/CMA.1 requires. Nothing is addressed to HEAT; the earlier "decision in writing for us" framing is dropped.
Inputs status: M. Sambou’s calculation file RECEIVED (21/08) ✓ · SIE 2023 PDF still requested (closes the custody gap) · NEW commitments for after Monday: model handover with README + handover note (national appropriation), and a comment-tracking annex (observation → treatment → report location).
The methodological decision belongs to METE — nothing is addressed to HEAT. If the BAU is recalibrated, METE decides whether the adopted targets move or are held with percentages restated, and documents its choice in the ICTU annex of Senegal’s own submission, as Decision 4/CMA.1 requires. A higher BAU makes the same absolute target read as a larger percentage cut; naming this openly protects both sides.
01-PROJECTS/01.1-ACTIVE/ECF-SEN-NDC03/05_DELIVERABLES/Report/August_2026/Madeleine-BAU-request/…/Madeleine-BAU-request/Response/2026-08-21_bau-brief-deck.html · Technical note (FR/EN): …/Response/Note-technique_BAU-energie-CDN3_FR-EN_2026-08-21.docx · Deep assessment: …/SIE-DEEP-ASSESSMENT-2026-08-19.mdDecision paragraph numbers cited at decision level; verify exact paragraphs at unfccc.int before external use.
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Volume 2 (Energy), Chapter 6, Reference Approach; mandatory for Paris Agreement inventories under Decision 18/CMA.1. Agreement between the two approaches is then expected within about ±5 %.
Update 22/08 — worked file received: bunkers and biomass ARE excluded in M. Sambou’s file (both confirmed; HEAT’s biomass hypothesis is withdrawn). The operative rules are now the other two: primary vs secondary fuels (crude counted alongside products without netting production/exports double-counts refinery throughput) and non-energy use (lubricants). The next slide shows the result.
IPCC category series extracted from the SIE energy balances (Rapport SIE-2024, éd. 28/04/2025) and calibrated to reproduce the SIE 2023 observations. Source: HEAT energy sector note, Oct 2025 rev.; model v125.
| IPCC 1A subsector | 2022 (Mt CO₂e) | 2023 (Mt CO₂e) | Δ 22→23 | Share 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A1 · Electricity production | 1,65 | 1,87 | +13,5 % | 20,2 % |
| +1A2 · Manufacturing industries | 1,71 | 1,80 | +5,3 % | 19,5 % |
| +1A3 · Transport (road 95 %) | 4,57 | 4,72 | +3,4 % | 51,0 % |
| +1A4a-b · Residential & tertiary | 0,69 | 0,72 | +5,2 % | 7,8 % |
| +1A4c · Agriculture (energy use) | 0,13 | 0,14 | +3,4 % | 1,5 % |
| =Total energy (1A) | 8,74 | 9,25 | +5,8 % | 100 % |
| →2024, extrapolated from the 1A trend | ≈ 9,5 | to be replaced by the actual from the archived SIE 2024 | ||
Excluded per IPCC from this series: biomass CO₂ (memo item), international bunkers (memo item), non-energy use, fugitives (1B, reported separately: 0,00 in 2023). The same exclusions must be applied to any reference-approach figure before the two are compared.
SIE 2024 balance (Annexes 3–4) · EFs per fuel from IPCC 2006 Vol. 2 (× EF column) · Tier 2 for 1A1–1A3, Tier 1 for 1A4 · Source: Energy-balance 2022-2023 note; model 3_Energy_Emissions.
| Fuel / mode | Activity 2023 | × EF (tCO₂/TJ, IPCC 2006) | Emissions (Mt CO₂e) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A1 · Electricity — activity = fuel input energy (verified: HFO 19 120 TJ × 77,4 = 1,480 ≈ 1,476 ✓) · grid EF 240 g/kWh = average over 7 794 GWh generated · ⚠ report also cites 567 (§4.2), 656 (Fig. 5), 726 (OM, SIE 2023): different constructs, label them (Sambou obs.) | ||||
| Heavy fuel oil (HFO) | 5 311 GWh | 77,4 | 1,476 | dominant thermal fleet |
| +Diesel | 1 002 GWh | 74,1 | 0,273 | |
| +Coal | 433 GWh | 94,6 | 0,122 | Sendou · 1 559 TJ × 94,6 = 0,147 — verify in script |
| +Solar, hydro, wind | 1 048 GWh | 0 | 0,000 | 19,5 % renewable electricity |
| =1A1 total | 1,871 | |||
| 1A2 · Manufacturing industries | ||||
| HFO, diesel, coal, LPG (cement, food, textile, chemicals) | 765,84 ktep ≈ 32 055 TJ | ≈ 56,1 weighted | 1,800 | weighted EF ≈ 56,1 tCO₂/TJ |
| 1A3 · Transport | ||||
| Road · heavy trucks (diesel) | 617,85 ktep | 74,1 | 2,247 | 50 % of road |
| +Road · passenger cars (gasoline) | 287,05 ktep | 69,3 | 0,871 | |
| +Road · light trucks (diesel) | 191,37 ktep | 74,1 | 0,674 | |
| +Road · other road (mixed) | 245,99 ktep | ≈ 71–74 mixed | 0,342 | |
| +Road · buses (diesel) | 63,75 ktep | 74,1 | 0,225 | |
| +Road · motorcycles (gasoline) | 38,28 ktep | 69,3 | 0,135 | road total 60 470 TJ × EF = 4,481 ≈ 4,494 ✓ · segment rows = fleet-share allocation (50/15/19,4/5/3/7,6 %) |
| +Domestic aviation (jet) · inland navigation (diesel) | 6,86 · 2,29 ktep | 71,5 · 74,1 | 0,013 · 0,008 | 0,013 = 63 % of jet fuel → domestic share; remainder = intl bunkers (excluded) — confirm split in script |
| +Rail and other transport | · | 0,205 | ⚠ residual to the 1A3 total, decomposition to document | |
| =1A3 total | 4,720 | road = 95 % | ||
| 1A4 · Buildings and agriculture | ||||
| Residential, fossil share (LPG cooking 85 %) | 140,8 of 1 684 ktep | 63,1 (LPG) | 0,496 | 0,496 ≈ LPG CO₂ 0,372 + ~0,124 non-CO₂ (CH₄/N₂O) from biomass cooking — counted per IPCC while biomass CO₂ (≈ 1 500 ktep) stays memo item; verify in script |
| +Commercial & institutional | 189,2 ktep | ≈ 63–74 mixed | 0,228 | |
| +Agriculture energy use (1A4c) | 74,1 (diesel) | 0,140 | ||
| =Total energy 1A · 2023 | 9,25 | 1,871 + 1,800 + 4,720 + 0,724 + 0,140 = 9,255, published 9,25 | ||
EF validation (HEAT, 22 Aug) — resolved: all seven EFs = IPCC 2006 Vol. 2 Table 1.4 defaults exactly. 1A2 reproduces exactly (32 055 TJ × 56,1 = 1,798 ≈ 1,800). Road: total reproduces (+0,3 %); segment rows are fleet-share allocations, not independent calculations. 1A1: activity column is fuel input energy, not electricity output. Aviation 0,013 = domestic share of jet fuel (63 %), remainder excluded as bunkers. Residential 0,496 = LPG CO₂ + biomass non-CO₂ (hypothesis). Remaining to verify in the extraction script before Monday: coal row (0,147 vs 0,122), rail/other residual 0,205, residential split, grid-EF construct labels.
Published CDN 3.0 values (model v125, sheets 3_Sector_Totals, 8_AFOLU_Source, 3A_AFOLU_Reconciliation; CDN3 report Tableau 34). The calculation dispute is energy-only; these sectors carry document comments, not a BAU challenge.
| Component | 2020 (Mt CO₂e) | 2025 (Mt CO₂e) | Method & status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFOLU · net (agriculture + forestry) | |||
| Agriculture (livestock, rice, soils) | 9,32 | 10,16 | SEN24002 Tableau 8 basis · ⚠ correction pending: Tab. 8 gives 11,18 (2020) / trend 12,24 (2025), MEDDTE validation requested |
| +Forestry net balance (incl. fire management) | −6,14 | −4,43 | CDN3.0 FORET pathway; sink shrinks as deforestation and fires continue under BAU |
| =AFOLU net, published header | 3,18 | 5,73 | 3_Sector_Totals col. D (authoritative) |
| IPPU · industrial processes and product use | |||
| Cement clinker (2A1) + HFCs (2F1) + SF₆ (2F8) + chemicals + food & beverages | 4,26 | 4,63 | Driver × EF per component (6_Calculations); component split not re-published here |
| Waste · solid and liquid | |||
| Solid waste disposal (4.A) + wastewater (4.D), aggregated | · | 2,10 (2024) | CDN3 report Tableau 34 · UCG 2015 composition data · 4.A/4.D split to be published in the technical annex (waste comment, 17 Aug) |
| National total · mid-2020s | |||
| =Energy 11,55 + AFOLU 5,73 + IPPU 4,63 + Waste 2,10 | ≈ 24,0 | next to BUR 2018 national total: 24,403 Mt · CDN2 BAU 2020: 26,24 · base year 2010: 16,75 | |
The national level is broadly coherent with the BUR 2018 anchor M. Sambou cites; the contested piece is the energy trajectory. Model BAU totals ahead: 30,42 Mt (2030) and 31,68 Mt (2035). Comments beyond energy (transport targets and MRV, waste split, AFAT presentation) are document-revision items, not BAU arithmetic.